Focus Question:
How might Ohio consume transportation in the year 2030? What are the most likely scenarios factoring in the possible development of a carbon regime, the cost of infrastructure, demographic expectations and economic growth within the state? What are the factors that the government can influence?
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3 comments:
I would frame the question as:
How is Ohio likely to consume transportation services in 2030, under continued status quo policies and different potential future states of the world?
Once we've answered that question, the group might then turn to the following two questions:
1. What elements of this future view are broadly unsatisfactory, under most potential states of the world?
2. What changes in policy would be effective in remediating the unsatisfactory aspects of Ohio transportation in 2030 under most scenarios and therefore should be implemented at the state and local level?
I'm sure I'm restating some of what's been said previously.
The Question might be phrased like this:
Without significant changes in the way Ohio plans and builds its transportation infrastructure, what will the state's transportation system look like in 2030?
With that in mind:
What forces (external and internal to the state) might cause Ohio to change it's transportation planning and implementation? These changes might include: Carbon legislation, a Renewable Fuels Portfolio, substanial increases in the cost of transportation fuel (for all sorts of reasons - decreased refining capacity, fuel shortages, blending requirements, etc.).
If we're in agreement that these sorts of issues represent a disruption to the status quo that we thought about in the opening question (above), then the state must act proactively by undertaking a risk reduction strategy to soften the impact these disruptions represent to the economic well-being of all Ohioans.
So the question becomes: With these disruptive scenarios in mind, what steps can the state undertake now and into the future to stabilize Ohio's economic exposure to these threats, reduce the environmental and health risks associated with these scenarios, and save taxpayer dollars.
Michael here:
I continue to advocate for the term "might" as our operative verb here. "How might Ohio consume transportation in 2030?"
We then should describe the scenario analysis approach that I believe we reached consensus upon, which included a "business as usual" case and a manageable (3-5) number of cases characterized by macro trends that we identify, which I do not believe we should list here unless only for illustrative purposes (e.g., carbon regime, demographics, etc.)
Our work then would turn toward looking at both robust policies that would prove relevant in each of these possible futures, as well as attractive policies, as per Richard's suggestions.
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